2016 Election and the Electoral College

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One of the interesting things this in this election is although Hillary Clinton lost the election, she won the popular vote. Hillary had 60,467,601 votes to Trump’s 60,027,551 votes, a difference of 440,050 votes. Yet Donald Trump won the electoral votes with 290 (currently) to Hillary’s 228. This is very odd. The last time this happened, with the 2000 election, George W. Bush won with 271 electoral votes. Trump won this election with 306. Essentially, he won it with enough of a margin to lose Florida, the fourth largest state in the union. So why was there such a difference?

One-eighth of Hillary’s votes were centered in 2 states, New York and California where she got 4,143,874 votes and 5,590,292 votes respectively. Votes from those two states alone total 9,734,166 and represent a whopping 16 percent of her total votes. For comparison, let’s remove the 4 largest states from Hillary and Trump’s votes to see how the election would turn out.

Hillary Trump
Total Votes 60,467,601 60,027,551
California 5,637,955 3,034,901
Florida 4,485,745 4,605,515
New York 4,143,874 2,640,570
Texas 3,867,816 4,681,590
Votes without 4 largest states 42,332,211 45,064,975

In the end, if we remove the 4 largest states, Trump wins by 2,732,764 votes. What this shows is that Hillary’s popular vote win was due entirely to New York and California. Donald Trump’s lead in Florida and Texas was less than Hillary’s lead in New York. This is how Trump won the electoral college by a decent margin (about 30 or so when all’s said and done) yet still lost the popular vote.

And this is why the electoral college exists. A lot of people look at it from the perspective of smaller states and then claim “But look at Florida. It has a lot of electoral votes.” Yes, but it has fewer than it would have had had the vote been a pure popular vote. Let’s take California. It has a population of 38.8 million people, and the US has a population of 318.9 million people. So California makes up 12.16 percent of the US. But with 55 electoral votes, it only makes up 10.22 percent of the electoral college votes. So what the electoral college does is it depresses the oversized states and increases the small states. This is because everyone gets a minimum of 3 electoral votes. It flattens the election maps and balances the states.

And this is the problem with the popular vote. Trump did better in the remaining 46 states yet would lose a pure popular vote just because Hillary was supported by California and New York. Essentially, those states would get their preferred president while everyone else wouldn’t. This might also be why people are so upset by the results. A lot of the Hillary voters live in a few areas. They live in a bubble. For comparison, I never saw a Hillary sign in Florida, but I saw a lot of Trump signs.

There are a few reason Trump may also lost the popular vote. For one, the media assaulted Trump at every turn and wouldn’t report fairly about Hillary. Did you hear about Spirit Cooking in the news? Did you hear Wikileaks or Project Veritas in the news? The media made Trump out to be Hitler. I expect this may be why people saw both candidates as awful. People never liked Hillary but the media made everyone hate Trump too. So the election was closer. You can also see this as Gary Johnson got 3 percent of the vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if some Republicans were shocked into voting for the Libertarian (both being right-side parties).

There is also the possibility that Hillary cheated. She did it then Primaries and Project Veritas proved that Democrats were planning to cheat. I suspect this may have shaved some votes from Trump in key states like Virginia and Florida. In Florida, the Democrats were filling out absentee ballots for Hillary. In Virginia, the governor pardoned 60,000 felons which could have swung the election. Since Trump won, the right will likely never look into this, so it would only bother analytical types like myself.

Lastly, Mike Cernovich made the point that there was no “Get out the vote” drive in states Trump would lose anyway (such as California). Donald Trump only got 33 percent of the votes in California while Romney got 37 percent. Romney got 1.8 million more votes than Trump. Since Trump knew the point was to win the electoral college, not the popular vote, he didn’t waste time in those states. He won within the rules of the system.

One thing I think this election signifies is a shift in the political landscape. The Democrats won the popular vote because they dominated the large cities, but lost overall as the Republicans claimed the rust belt. If Donald Trump can actually bring jobs back, then the Republicans will lock the Rust Belt states down. It will make it very hard for the Democrats to win if they can’t win the rustbelt states. Moreover, you’ll likely start to see more candidates win the electoral college and lose the popular vote.

That said, Trump is also an odd ball candidate. He’s not a politician and has only been doing this for a year and a half. Likewise, his presidency could be very different as he spent his entire life outside of the government. 2020 could be a very interesting election, especially as we’ll actually have Trump’s record as a president. Who knows how it will turn out. But if you are looking at this in 2020, I hope you enjoyed some facts.

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The Trump Victory: Voter Revenge

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In my last post, I discussed why Trump voters are more enthusiastic and will show up more often  to vote for him. This will definitely help Trump, but there is something bigger going on behind the scenes. I think the Democratic base will enact revenge against the Democrats.

Now, I don’t mean in the sense that Trump is the giant middle finger to the establishment. What I’m talking is the base getting even within their own party. Essentially, the Democratic voters are going to get even with the Democratic base. One both sides of the political spectrum, no one really talks about about voting just to get even. The left thinks all the people on the left will show up and vote left. The right thinks all the people on the right will come out and vote for the right. This is the working assumption. But what happens if one side comes out to vote for the other guy? That could be enough to swing elections. Although independents win elections, I don’t think it matters if your own base doesn’t come out and vote for you.

Sean Malstrom talks about this from the Republican side:

In 2006, the House of Representatives becomes Democrat controlled. Did this occur because districts suddenly became liberal? No. This was the Republican base expressing anger at being betrayed by the Bush administration and the Republican House who did Bush’s dirty work. 2006 saw conservative districts putting in Democrats. Many times, Republicans will vote in a Democrat just to get rid of a Republican who is betraying them.

This revenge has happened more often on the Republican side due to the Bushes. Immigration has been a big issue for the Republicans, but they never seem to go through with it. In the end, they kick out republicans.

Could this be happening in the Democratic camp? Check out this article

I’m a Democrat,” Saunders, who worked for many prominent national Democrats over his career, says in the interview video. “I believe in the two founding principles of Jacksonian Democracy, social justice and economic fairness. Right now, I think that the Democratic Party—my great party—has got away from some of this.”

These people are all about spiting Clinton. Need more? Here is more outrage during the Democratic National Convention

http://www.dangerandplay.com/2016/09/14/mike-cernovich-documentary-unconvention-dnc-rnc/

There is clear anger at the Democratic establishment. People didn’t like the super delegates. When they found out about the DNC colluding with Clinton. they became furious. So what do voters do when they get angry. They get even. What you are going to see is a ton of the Bernie voters will vote Trump. They may not really like Trump, but they are getting even with Clinton and her DNC goons. You can see this in the polls. The polls over sample democrats or blocks that are likely to vote for Hillary, but even with obviously poor samples, you are seeing the race be pretty close. A lot of polls only put  Clinton a few points ahead. If the favorable polls aren’t helping Clinton much, there are likely a lot of Democrats who will secretly vote for Trump.

Also, with all of the media blitz against Trump, people will look at you funny if you say you are voting for Trump. If you’re a liberal, you will likely be ostracized by your liberal friends. So I wouldn’t doubt there are still some Democrats who are saying they will vote Hillary, but then change at the last minute.

I think it’s very likely for Trump to win thanks to revenge voters. Democrats haven’t experienced voter revenge much. While the right has the RINOs (Republican in name only), the Democrats usually don’t have that. That’s why Obama still has a 50 percent approval rate despite having very disastrous policies. But the obvious corruption is the straw that broke the camel’s back; it will be why the Democrats will come out in record numbers for a Republican.

Keep in mind Trump and Bernie were both anti-establishment candidates. If the anti-establish Bernie voters didn’t get Bernie, why would they vote for establishment Clinton? The fact is they won’t. I think the media and political establishment will be very surprised when they find out that they lost and Democrat voters were a big reason why.

Want more? Follow me on Twitter at @Spoogymoney. If you want to here about video games, go to Sourcegaming.info

Missed Opprotunity: Nintendo Switch Holiday Mall Tour

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Nintendo announced they will be unveiling their games and the price of the system on January 12, 2017. Here’s the link.

Now, I will say I’m not a big fan of this move. You buy systems for games, so not showing off the games is the same as showing off the system. Moreover, if the system launches in early March, it’s not a lot of time to build interest and show off the system. Of course, it’s a moot point now.

I think what’s more interesting is that Nintendo missed a huge opportunity to promote their system: a holiday mall tour.  

Nintendo is launching this system at a unique time. Most consoles launch at the end of the year in order to get the system out before Christmas. Nintendo, however, is releasing their system in March and are skipping the holidays all together. Perhaps it’s not a great idea, but it opens up this unique opportunity.

Nintendo, like with the Wii and Wii U will be demoing the system after the presentation in January. But consider if they demoed the system during the holiday rush instead. Malls will be the busiest during the holidays. You have a prime time to show millions of people this new system as they shop for Christmas gifts. The amount of attention Nintendo would be able to attract would be astronomical. It would also help address the fact Nintendo is releasing the system at a slower time of the year (though everything is slow compared to the last three months of the year).

Nintendo could have even use this to show off other products. Why not show off the NES Mini, which I’m sure is going to be a huge holiday item. Maybe show off Super Mario Run or Pokemon Sun and Moon. Unlike the Nintendo Switch, Nintendo is selling these products during the holidays. Essentially, they kill two birds with one stone.

Of course, one thing I’m not considering this is if the malls would allow this (as it can take up quite a lot of store space) or if it could be cost effective (malls may charge more to do this during their busiest time of the year). Nintendo may have considered it, but we’ll never know. Nevertheless, it would have been a great opportunity.

If you want more, follow me on Twitter @Spoogymonkey. Also check out Sourcegaming.info as well. 

Nintendo Thinks Long-Term

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Nintendo is planning to ship 2 million Switch by March 30, 2016. Here is a reporter from the Wall Street Journal.

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His thinking isn’t out of the box. But you, good reader, do think outside the box. It’s why you are here.

First, the answer is obvious that Nintendo doesn’t take a huge risk by overproducing Nintendo Switch and no one buys them. This is a new brand for Nintendo, and it could be unsuccessful. We won’t know till its out. Nintendo isn’t going to make tens of millions of these thing only to have the system flops leaving  too many systems in the pipeline. Obsolete inventory is one of the worst problems you can have as a business, which is why companies try to minimize it and lenders keep an eye on it. Sega had the same problem with the Dreamcast, so it’s not an outlandish proposition. Better safe than sorry.

Second, a shortage makes the system seem successful. Let’s say Nintendo shipped 5 million and only 4.8 million sold. That’s good, but there are systems left over. To the public, it will seem like it did OK. Now, let’s say there are only 2 million and ALL of them sell out with customers hungry to get their hands on it. Now the system seems like a huge success. See, people don’t read financial and sales reports. They only know if something is successful by whether it’s on the shelve or not. If Nintendo Switch is sitting on the shelve and collecting dust, it’s a flop. But if they fly off the shelves, it’s a success. They get to say to customers “We are so sorry. Please understand, we didn’t think this will be as big of a success. We’ll make more. We promise.” That’s much better than going to investors and saying “Please forgive us. We made too many Nintendo Switch and we can’t sell them.”

Nintendo may also be using this initial system to create the first generation consumers. They will be the more dedicated Nintendo fans who will buy into the system, love it, and create buzz about the system. Word of mouth is still the most powerful form of advertising. Nintendo may be using them and their enthusiasm to gauge future production.

In the video game industry, you have to think long term. Nintendo is not looking at this Q4 2016. They are looking at the 24 quarters thereafter. Their earnings will be based on the next 6 years. Nintendo’s bad earnings today are due to the mistakes made with the Wii U and the 3DS. If the Switch is successful, they will ride the success for another 5 to 6 years, and that’s what they want.

To illustrate this, here is Nintendo’s Net Income ratio (Operating ratio divided by Sales). Here is this Generation (you can find the data here)

Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NI Ratio(%) 7.7 -6.7 1.1 -4.1 7.6

Now here is the Wii Generation

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NI Ratio(%) 19.3 18.0 15.4 15.2 15.9

See the difference. Note that the Great Recession happened in 2008. While the ratio declined, it was still far higher than anytime in the last 5 years. Nintendo knows that if this thing flops, they are stuck with poor earnings for another 5 years. This is what Nintendo is trying to avoid. This is why Nintendo isn’t aggressive with Nintendo Switch productions.

Nintendo isn’t going to flood the pipeline. They are being conservative, which is good. It’s how they’ve stayed in business for so long. Moreover, if the system creates a lot of buzz early on (through a shortage or the first generation buyers), then the system can improve demand and have a profitable next 5 or 6 years. Nintendo is finally getting out of the Generation 8 slump. Nintendo’s earnings today are a result of that. 2016 will have bad results, and there isn’t much the company can do about it. They are right to prepare for a great 2017 and make sure the next years are profitable.

This is why Nintendo is the business and the analyst are, well, the analyst.

Want more boring video game sales data? Follow me at @Spoogymonkey. You can also find more of me at SourceGaming.info

The Trump Victory: Enthusiam Gap

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There has been plenty of talk about voter fraud, and there have been some reported instances in Texas. It’s a big issue, for sure, but I’m not that concerned about it. That’s because I’m confident it won’t be enough and that Trump will win by a landslide. In this article (and the next), I will explain the two major factors as to why a Trump presidency is inevitable.

The Enthusiasm Gap

The basket of deplorables knows this point quite well, and although Antithesis Analysis is not about saying what everyone knows or thinks, it’s important that we still discuss it.

So consider you are talking to someone who is not a “deplorable” pepe meming Trump supporter. If you ask them who they think will win, they might say Hillary Clinton. Why? Because she’s up in the polls. Now, I’m sure you want to point out that those polls are false or one of the Podesta Emails that points out that the polls are rigged. You can do the same thing just as easily. Point to the fact.

Rallies

Trump has one or two rallies a day. His rallies will have 10,000 to 20,000 attendance at each. Clinton does one about every two weeks and has maybe 100 people. From the GatewayPundit

Through August 25th, Trump has held 29 campaign events in August with an estimated 168,000 participants.  Clinton on the other hand has held only 11 campaign events attended by an estimated paltry 10,000.

Trump averages 5,800 people per event in August while Clinton averages less than 1,000.

From rt.com

Donald Trump’s rally in Baton Rouge, Louisiana drew over 10,000 people on Thursday, reportedly breaking an attendance record at the Baton Rouge River Center set by musician Elton John.

People are willing to go out and see Trump. They don’t want to go out and see Clinton.

Social Media

Facebook_Trump.png

Trump has 11.7 million likes

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Clinton has 7.5 million. This means that for every 2 Clinton likes, there are 3 Trump likes. The top topic on Hillary’s page has 5.5 thousand likes. Trump has 84 thousands.

 

Twitter_Trump.pngTrump has 12.7 million Twitter followers

Twitter_Clinton.png

Hillary has 9.9 million followers. Like Facebook, its 3 to 2. Again, Trump has more retweets and likes than Clinton does.

I don’t think think I need to discuss the Reddit. Its a little sad honestly.

Books

Hillary Clinton’s book is a complete flop. From the Washington Post

Do you own a hard copy of Hillary Clinton’s book Hard Choices? If so, you’re in exclusive company. According to data provided to the Post by Nielsen BookScan, a little over 26,000 more copies of the book were sold in its third week — down almost 46 percent from the week prior, which was down 44 percent from the week before that.

Trump’s books sold well before he entered the political ring. A good comparison is MAGA Mindset, which (at least according to its author) has outpaced Hillary’s book. At a bear minimum, we can say Hillary isn’t pulling people in with her writing skills.

Why does this matter

As someone more clever than me said, If no one goes to her rallies, no one follows her on social media, and no one buys her book, are they really going to vote for her come Novermber?

What this tells us is that, in truth, the polls are wrong. If the polls were so accurate, why is reality not matching the polls? If the polls were accurate, she would have people at her rallies. She would be able to sell books. She would would have a Reddit that’s not a joke. The truth is what everyone know: No one really cares about Hillary Clinton. And if no one cares, no one votes.

One of the biggest weaknesses Clinton has is she is only an alternative to Trump. The ballot would be more accurate to say “Trump: Yes or No?” The same thing happened in 2008. McCain was just an alternative to Obama. The end result is no one really voted for McCain. The only reason they have to go out to the polls, deal with traffic, wait in line just to check a box and have to wake up at 6 AM tomorrow morning. The reality is they won’t. Something will come up. Something will happen that stops them. Trump supporters, on the other hand, will go out to vote even if Satan himself is stopping them. They will be at the polls in full force. Clinton voters will stay home. This is how Trump wins.

To finish, I leave you with Mike Cernovich

Cernovich: You’re voting for Hillary, right?

Her: Yes.

Cerno: Are you excited about this?

Her: [Pause]…not really.

Cernovich: Now imagine it’s election day. You wake up. Your car won’t start. Maybe you got in a fight with your boyfriend. Maybe you had a bad day at work. Do you stop what you are doing to go to the polls to vote for Hillary?

Her: I really don’t care that much who wins.

Want more crazy, out there opinions and ideas? Make sure to follow me at @Spoogymonkey. You can also get more of my stuff on Sourcegaming.info

Internet’s Thoughts on Nintendo Switch

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Nintendo finally announced the Switch. It looks like the company is making a big SWITCH with this system……no?

Bad puns aside, I have not heard any compelling answers to what the Switch is. Our friends, the analyst, seem to be mum on it. Why? This is clearly a big switch for Nintendo. I don’t think investors get it either. Nintendo’s stock fell 6 percent after the announcement.

I will explain the Nintendo Switch here and on Source Gaming in the coming days, but I want to point out some of the things I’ve heard from folks talking about the Nintendo Switch

Each Nintendo system sold less than the previous

I’ve heard this one quite a bit, so I think it may be a point of interest (or a sore spot), for Nintendo fans. Yes, it is true. With the exception of the Wii, each console has sold less than the previous. If you just look at this, you’d assume that demand for Nintendo is declining. Nintendo’s handhelds follow a similar trend. Nevertheless, their handhelds still do well. Despite a very poor start and Nintendo having to cut the price, the 3DS has still sold about 60 million. The PS4 has only sold 42 million.  I think fans are aware this is a good move.

The Handheld Market is Dying

You can see above. The 3DS sold 60 million units during the great recessions. As I mentioned in a previous post, the market has contracted. If the handheld market is dying, then by the same vein, so is the console market (as the 3DS has outsold the PS4). Everyone seems to think that mobile eroded the 3DS, but the 3DS’s problem was its games. It took the same strategy as the Wii U. Use the DS’s brands to push an idea Nintendo wanted to do (in this case, 3D). The 3DS began to recover when the price fell and better games came out. I’ll talk more about this point in the future, but there is weird assumption that everything is mutually exclusive, but it isn’t.

Nintendo Struggled With Two Consoles

This was something I mentioned in The NX Will Have How Many Games!? That Nintendo had problems creating pipelines for two systems. This has been made worse with how long it takes to make games now. A few people have pointed out this struggle, so good on them.

The Nintendo Switch is trying to be the “Second Console”

This one came from a contemporary at Source Gaming. As you can expect, I disagree. No one makes their console with being second place in mind. They make it to sell as many units as possible. I think this thought comes from the idea that the Nintendo Switch because its not a normal console. The same thing was said about the Wii, yet it outsold the PS3 and XBox 360. Being the “second console,” means very little.

There is more to say about the Nintendo Switch, but I will save that for another day. Check here and on Sourcegaming.info for more.